Temporal Trend of Urolithiasis Incidence in China: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Abstract

Hui Huang,1 Minmin Li,2 Hourui Fan,3 Ruhai Bai4 1Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene, Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, People’s Republic of China; 3Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, People’s Republic of China; 4School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Ruhai BaiSchool of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, No. 200, Xiaolingwei Street, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail [email protected]: Urolithiasis is one of the commonest disease of the urinary system. This study aimed to assess the long-term urolithiasis incidence trends in China between 1990 and 2019.Patients and Methods: The incidence data of urolithiasis were extracted from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and an age–period–cohort framework was used to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects.Results: We found that the net drift was − 2.72% (95% CI: − 2.84% to − 2.60%) per year for men and − 2.14% (95% CI: − 2.24% to − 2.05%) per year for women, and except men in age group 0– 4, the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (P< 0.05 for all) in both sexes during the period of 1990 to 2019. In the same birth cohort, the risk of incidence from urolithiasis rose first and then decreased with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations, and in addition, after 20 years old, the risk of incidence of urolithiasis in men was higher than that in women (significantly with P< 0.05). In general, the estimated period and cohort relative risks were found in similar downward patterns for both sexes.Conclusion: In the past 30 years, the age-standard incidence of urolithiasis in both sex of Chinese people has decreased, but the crude incidence of urolithiasis in Chinese women has increased. Considering the aging of population structure in China, the overall number of female urolithiasis patients may increase, contributes to higher crude incidence rate. The problem of urolithiasis in Chinese women needs to be paid more attention.Keywords: age–period–cohort analysis, urolithiasis, urinary stones, urolithiasis in China

Keywords

• age–period–cohort analysis
• urolithiasis
• urinary stones
• urolithiasis in china