Recognition and Explanation of Effective Factors and Propulsions on Iran and Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) Relations in Next Ten Years Overlook by Utilizing MICMAC Method

Abstract

Persian Gulf is one of the most geological areas in the world with outstanding characteristics that was constantly in consideration of so many states for centuries. So, Persian Gulf has always been faced with competitions and conflicts of states. This area involves state parties of the PGCC, including Iran and Iraq, that Iran’s relations with southern countries of Persian Gulf is important from several aspects. In this regard, by utilizing futures study, first, initial data was collected by semi-open review with twenty experts in this subject and was analyzed by Micmac software. Finally, the conclusion of utilizing intersecting effects analysis was the recognition of five key factors among sixty initial recognized factors. These five factors include: the attitudes of authorities and governments of Iran and state parties of the PGCC with each other; proliferation of military competitions between state parties of the council (Arabian NATO Plan) and Iran with the aim of being hegemony in Persian Gulf area; inspiring fear of Shiite-Arc and issuance of Islamic Revolution of Iran to be against Iran and identity differences; the effects of the future of Bahrain, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon on relations between Iran and state parties of the PGCC; and, Iran’s Atomic Program and the future of BARJAM (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: JCPOA). These factors can be used as main factors in Scenario in future study.