Dynamic modeling of ecosystem goods and services in the Thomas van der Hammen Forest Reserve

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to perform a dynamic modeling of demand and offer of ecosystem goods and services related to the land use change due to urban expansion in the Thomas van der Hammen reserve, in Bogotá, Colombia. Population growth, land use and impact on ecosystem goods and services changes were analyzed. The VensimPLE® software was used to develop the dynamic modeling. As results, it was noted that by 2060 the reserve will show loss, change or deterioration in 68.75% of the area that offers ecosystem goods and services if the actual change of land use rates is maintained. Furthermore, the population inside the reserve will be duplicated by period 2055-2056 with a possible loss of sub-superficial water used as ecosystem provision good and service. The relation between the city growth and the ecosystem goods and services deterioration was discussed.

Keywords

• áreas protegidas
• bienes y servicios ecosistémicos
• modelación
• reserva forestal