FERNAU OSCILLATION AND RHYTHMS OF YEARS WITH FOUR POLAR ECLIPSES IN THE PAST TWO MILLENNIA DEDICATED TO EMMANUEL LE ROY LADURIE

Abstract

Purpose. We have identified the relationship between the number of years with four and five polar solar eclipses in a century and periods of pessimums that characterize the advance of Alpine glaciers in the Small Ice Ages of the VI-VII, XII-XIII, XVII-XIX centuries. Methodology and Approach. We have studied, summarized and calculated the data on the number of years with four (five) polar eclipses in a century from 2000 BC until 3000 AD. Years with four to five polar eclipses are often cold or abnormally cold. Logical and graphical analysis, as well as the synthesis of various data for the first and second millennia AD, shows that the centuries with frequent recurrence of such years (15-17 cases) with intervals between them of 3, 4 and 7 years correspond to the periods of glaciation of the Late Antique ice age and the Fernau oscillation. Conversely, during the periods of the Roman and Medieval optimums, when the number of years with four (five) polar eclipses was 2-5 per century, glaciers were warming and degrading. Results. It is shown that the anthropogenic causes of modern global warming, which will last until the middle of the 22nd century, are secondary. Orbital-cosmic factors that cause a change in the position of the total vector of gravitational forces of the Moon and the Sun are primary. Visually, its position describes the movement of the axis of the cone of the shadow of solar eclipses around the globe from equatorial to polar latitudes. In modern times, the number of years with four polar eclipses, as in the interglacial periods, does not exceed 6-7 cases. Theoretical and Practical implications. The results of the study can be used in retroanalysis of glaciation periods in the past and their prediction in the future. It should be born in mind that solar activity, volcanic activity, current intensity and heat transfer with the World Ocean can significantly enhance or weaken the manifestation of both optimums and pessimums. Based on the results of the study, we suggest that in the second half of the 22nd century, and throughout the entire 24th century, the advance of the Alpine glaciers will be noticeable.

Keywords

• global warming
• glaciations
• Fernau oscillation
• polar eclipses