Integrative Analysis of Spatial Heterogeneity and Overdispersion of Crime with a Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Model

Abstract

Negative binomial (NB) regression model has been used to analyze crime in previous studies. The disadvantage of the NB model is that it cannot deal with spatial effects. Therefore, spatial regression models, such as the geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model, were introduced to address spatial heterogeneity in crime analysis. However, GWPR could not account for overdispersion, which is commonly observed in crime data. The geographically weighted negative binomial model (GWNBR) was adopted to address spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion simultaneously in crime analysis, based on a 3-year data set collected from ZG city, China, in this study. The count of residential burglaries was used as the dependent variable to calibrate the above models, and the results revealed that the GWPR and GWNBR models performed better than NB for reducing spatial dependency in the model residuals. GWNBR outperformed GWPR for incorporating overdispersion. Therefore, GWNBR was proven to be a promising tool for crime modeling.

Keywords

• residential burglary
• spatial heterogeneity
• overdispersion
• geographically weighted poisson regression
• geographically weighted negative binomial regression