Financial contagion and identifying speculative frenzies: Unraveling price bubbles in cryptocurrency markets

Abstract

This research investigates the occurrence of financial bubbles in the cryptocurrency market and highlights the factors that may influence the formation of these bubbles. Three cryptocurrencies were analyzed: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano, and our findings showed that these cryptocurrencies exhibited potential bubbles during the three-year period under study, from 2020 to 2023. To detect financial bubbles, the Exponential Curve Fitting Model (EXCF) model was used. Events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict were examined from the perspective of their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market and investor behavior. The study also illustrated how investors’ behavior, whether rational or influenced by external factors, as well as internal factors such as panic levels and knowledge in the financial-economic domain, were analyzed.

Keywords

• financial bubbles
• financial contagion
• exponential curve fitting model