Development and application of a forecasting system to avoid spring frost damage in chiana valley

Abstract

Late frost is one of the more serious adversity for Italian agriculture. Several methods have been developed to protect cultivations, but their application results particularly effective (also from an economic point of view) only if supported by forecasting systems during the more susceptible period of the year. On these basis a forecasting system of late frost in Val di Chiana (an area in central Italy mainly cultivated with cereals and high quality fruits) was developed. The system consists in an empirical model, based on a preventive agroclimatic analysis of the area to identify night cooling dynamics (for several meteorological conditions) in the spring. A network of 10 thermohygrometric stations was installed in the area integrating the information obtained by a local agrometeorological station network. The final product was a forecasting bulletin emitted every three hours beginning from the 13:00 p.m. A validation of the system was performed for 2006 to verify the forecast skill.