GEO-STRATEGIC INTERESTS OF UKRAINE AND ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP WITH TURKEY

Abstract

Abstract. Broadening the scope of economic interests, together with the involvement of the strategic partner to resolve security issues, brings the dialogue between Ukraine and Turkey to a new level. This intensified negotiations on the establishment of a free trade area and the implementation of joint projects in the defense industry, cultural and humanitarian spheres. Thus, the study of priority areas of cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the Black Sea region for the effective realization of Ukraine’s geostrategic interests is becoming topical. The purpose of the article is to study the peculiarities of the economic partnership between Ukraine and Turkey, to calculate the impact and to determine the advantages and prospects of a deeper bilateral trade liberalization. The methodology is based on assessment of export specialization; the characterization of the relative advantages by the RXA coefficient; the impact assessment of bilateral trade on economic development through a descriptive gravity model. The study found that high tariff barriers are now applied to Ukrainian exporters in the Turkish market. Total exports from Ukraine to Turkey declined by more than 30 per cent from 2011 to 2019, while the low value-added products dominate in the highly concentrated structure of export flows. On the contrary, Turkish exports to Ukraine are quite diversified. The top ten exports include machinery, electrical equipment, vehicles and knitwear. Ukrainian grains, oilseeds and oils, iron and steel, ore and rail transport have comparative advantages in the Turkish market. The military-industrial sector and IT are promising areas for export development and investment cooperation in the Ukrainian economy. Bilateral trade surpluses are in favor of Ukraine. The economic development of Ukraine significantly influences the volume of bilateral trade, according to the results of the descriptive gravity model. A $1 increase in Ukraine’s GDP will lead to an increase in bilateral trade by $0.8. This makes Ukraine much more interested in entering the Turkish market. Keywords: strategic partnership, free trade area, international trade, exports, customs tariffs, liberalization. JEL Classification F13 Formulas: 3; fig.: 4; tabl.: 2; bibl.: 21.

Keywords

• strategic partnership
• free trade area
• international trade
• exports
• customs tariffs
• liberalization