STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING FERTILITY IN THE ORENBURG REGION

Abstract

The revealed structure of the time series analyzed indicator is selected cyclical and trend components. The simulation of one-dimensional timeseries taking into account the selected cyclesand variability. Comparative analysis of trends and variability of total fertility rate for selectedcycles. The identified factors and their estimated impact on the dynamics of the total fertility rateat the beginning of the ascending phase of cycle(2004-2012). Developed factor forecast andforecast univariate time series.

Keywords

• общий коэффициент рождаемости
• спектральный анализ
• моде лирование динамики
• корреляционный и рег рессионный анализ
• коинтеграция
• прогноз
• the total fertility rate
• spectralanalysis
• modeling
• dynamics
• correlation andregression analysis
• cointegration
• forecasting