A Modified Change Vector Approach for Quantifying Land Cover Change

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a novel method for inferring land cover/land use (LCLU) change that combines direct multi-date classification with measures from a change vector analysis. The model predicts change directly rather than the land cover at either time, although these could be inferred. Unsupervised classifications of bi-temporal imagery were manually labeled and used to generate reference data for class-to-class changes. These were used to train a Random Forest model with inputs from the bi-temporal image bands and change vector measures (change vector direction, angle and the spectral angle) and used to generate a predicted surface of land cover change for a case study in the Pearl River Delta, China. The overall accuracy of LCLU change prediction was 96% and specific class-to-class changes had errors rates of 0–12.8%. Some errors were related the semi-automated labeling of the training data. The spectral angle variables and Near Infra-Red image bands for both years were found to be strong predictors of change. Odd ratios were used to quantify regional differences in land cover change rates in urban and peri-urban areas. The regional differences and origins of the observed errors are discussed, along with some areas of further work. The key contributions of this paper are the focus on change rather than LCLU through the construction of a model to predict changes directly and the development of an approach that provides quick, effective and informative analysis of LCLU change in support of policy and planning in rapidly urbanizing areas.

Keywords

• land cover
• LCLU
• LCLUC
• change detection
• change vector