Monetary policy in a low inflation environment and expectations of market participants

Abstract

The paper focuses on inflation expectations management in a low inflation or deflation environment. Firstly, it presents theoretical findings on avoiding and escaping the deflation trap. They are closely related to expectations management as expectations become the main transmission channel in the zero lower bound (ZLB) environment. In response to the recent economic crisis some of the following solutions have been applied by central banks: quantitative easing, forward guidance and depreciation. Their use is not detrimental to the framework of inflation targeting strategy. Secondly, some remarks about the difficulties of measuring expectations during the occurrence of ZLB and in a crisis situation are made. The information on expectations levels, their distribution, volatility and the degree to which they are anchored is crucial for central banks, especially when the expectations offer the most effective way to affect the economy. Finally, a comparison of the expectations quantified with the Carlson and Parkin probabilistic method and its version adjusted for non-positive scaling factor periods is made. The empirical part of the research covers Poland (July 2014 – December 2015) and Sweden (November 2012 – December 2015). Both countries experience deflation, and (additionally) Sweden operates under ZLB. An alternative method of quantification smoothes the expectations and reduces their volatility. The subject dealt with in this paper is still under theoretical and empirical examination. No conclusion as to the optimal solution for expectations management is made.

Keywords

• inflation expectations
• deflation
• the probabilistic method
• nominal interest rate limits