Height Prediction and 3D Visualization of Mining-Induced Water-Conducting Fracture Zone in Western Ordos Basin Based on a Multi-Factor Regression Analysis

Abstract

The mining-induced water-conducting fracture zone (WCFZ) plays a critical role in roof water damage prevention and ecological protection. The measured heights of the WCFZ were collected from 52 working faces or boreholes in the Ordos Basin mining area. Four factors influencing the mining-induced height of the WCFZ, i.e., mining thickness, proportion coefficient of hard rock, working width, and mining depth, were analyzed. The optimal unitary function model of each factor and the height of the WCFZ were obtained through single-factor analysis. The grey correlation method and fuzzy ordered binary comparison method were used to determine the comprehensive weight, and the weighted improved multiple regression model was obtained by combination and iteration. The relative error of the model was basically controlled within 10%. Finally, taking the Qingshuiying Coalfield as an application case, we predicted the mining-induced height of the WCFZ by using the new prediction model. The spatial distribution characteristics of the WCFZ were analyzed by the geographic information system. In addition, Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) software was used to build a 3D structure model of WCFZ height to visualize the spatial distribution rules of the WCFZ. The results showed that the height of the WCFZ can be predicted quantitatively by this new method, and the visualization of the WCFZ can be realized. The proposed method effectively analyzes and predicts the mining-induced height of the WCFZ so that water gushing risks from overlying aquifers can be prevented or mitigated in mines.

Keywords

• western Ordos Basin
• height of water-conducting fracture zone
• grey correlation method
• fuzzy ordered binary comparison method
• multivariate nonlinear regression model
• 3D visualization