Machine-Learning-Based Hybrid Modeling for Geological Hazard Susceptibility Assessment in Wudou District, Bailong River Basin, China

Abstract

In the mapping and assessment of mountain hazard susceptibility using machine learning models, the selection of model parameters plays a critical role in the accuracy of predicting models. In this study, we present a novel approach for developing a prediction model based on random forest (RF) by incorporating ensembles of hyperparameter optimization. The performance of the RF model is enhanced by employing a Bayesian optimization (Bayes) method and a genetic algorithm (GA) and verified in the Wudu section of the Bailong River basin, China, which is a typical hazard-prone, mountainous area. We identified fourteen influential factors based on field measurements to describe the “avalanche–landslide–debris flow” hazard chains in the study area. We constructed training (80%) and validation (20%) datasets for 378 hazard sites. The performance of the models was assessed using standard statistical metrics, including recall, confusion matrix, accuracy, F1, precision, and area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC), based on a multicollinearity analysis and Relief-F two-step evaluation. The results indicate that all three models, i.e., RF, GA-RF, and Bayes-RF, achieved good performance (AUC: 0.89~0.92). The Bayes-RF model outperformed the other two models (AUC = 0.92). Therefore, this model is highly accurate and robust for mountain hazard susceptibility assessment and is useful for the study area as well as other regions. Additionally, stakeholders can use the susceptibility map produced to guide mountain hazard prevention and control measures in the region.

Keywords

• mountain hazard chains
• susceptibility assessment
• machine learning
• Bayes-RF mode
• geographic information system