Survival Predictive Nomograms for Non-Surgical Brain Metastases Patients From Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Radiotherapy: A Population-Based Study

Abstract

Objective A high number of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients with brain metastasis who have not had surgery often have a negative outlook. Radiotherapy remains a most common and effective method. Nomograms were developed to forecast the cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in NSCLC individuals with nonoperative brain metastases who underwent radiotherapy. Methods Information was gathered from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database about patients diagnosed with NSCLC who had brain metastases not suitable for surgery. Nomograms were created and tested using multivariate Cox regression models to forecast CSS and OS at intervals of 1, 2, and 3 years. Results The research involved 3413 individuals diagnosed with NSCLC brain metastases who had undergone radiotherapy but had not experienced surgery. These participants were randomly divided into two categories. The analysis revealed that gender, age, ethnicity, marital status, tumor location, tumor laterality, tumor grade, histology, T stage, N stage, chemotherapy, tumor size, lung metastasis, bone metastasis, and liver metastasis were significant independent predictors for OS and CSS. The C-index for the training set for predicting OS was .709 (95% CI, .697-.721), and for the validation set, it was .705 (95% CI, .686-.723), respectively. The C-index for predicting CSS was .710 (95% CI, .697-.722) in the training set and .703 (95% CI, .684-.722) in the validation set, respectively. The nomograms model, as suggested by the impressive C-index, exhibits outstanding differentiation ability. Moreover, the ROC and calibration curves reveal its commendable precision and distinguishing potential. Conclusions For the first time, highly accurate and reliable nomograms were developed to predict OS and CSS in NSCLC patients with non-surgical brain metastases, who have undergone radiotherapy treatment. The nomograms may assist in tailoring counseling strategies and choosing the most effective treatment method.