Time-Series Prediction of Electricity Load for Charging Piles in a Region of China Based on Broad Learning System

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel electricity load time-series prediction model, utilizing a broad learning system to tackle the challenge of low prediction accuracy caused by the unpredictable nature of electricity load sequences in a specific region of China. First, a correlation analysis with mutual information is utilized to identify the key factors affecting the electricity load. Second, variational mode decomposition is employed to obtain different mode information, and then a broad learning system is utilized to build a prediction model with different mode information. Finally, particle swarm optimization is used to fuse the prediction models under different modes. Simulation experiments using real data validate the efficiency of the proposed method, demonstrating that it offers higher accuracy compared to advanced modeling techniques and can assist in optimal electricity-load scheduling decision-making. Additionally, the R2 of the proposed model is 0.9831, the PRMSE is 21.8502, the PMAE is 17.0097, and the PMAPE is 2.6468.

Keywords

• electricity load
• time-series prediction
• broad learning system
• variational mode decomposition
• actual data