RUL Prognostics: Recursive Bayesian Ensemble Prediction with Combining Artificial Degradation Patterns

Abstract

With the rising complexity of manufacturing processes, resulting from rapid industrial development, the utilization of remaining useful lifecycle (RUL) prediction, based on failure physics and traditional reliability, has remained limited. Although data-driven approaches of RUL prediction were developed using machine learning algorithms, uncertainty-induced challenges have emerged, such as sensor noise and modeling error. To address these uncertainty-induced problems, this study proposes a stochastic ensemble-modeling concept for improving the RUL prediction result. The proposed ensemble model combines artificial degradation patterns and fitness weights, which incorporate formulas reflecting failure patterns and various reliability function data with the observed degradation factor. Furthermore, a recursive Bayesian updating technique, reflecting the difference between expected and observed remaining life sequentially, was leveraged to reduce the prediction uncertainty. Moreover, we comparatively studied the predictive performance of the proposed model (recursive Bayesian ensemble model) against an existing baseline method (exponentially weighted linear regression model). Through simulation and case datasets, this experiment demonstrated the robustness and utility of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords

• artificial degradation pattern
• bayesian update
• fitness weight
• predictive maintenance
• prognostic
• reliability information
• rul