Deployment Forecasts of China's Photovoltaic: Based on Multimodel Comparison Analysis

Abstract

Climate targets in Paris Agreement closely depends on the deployment of renewables, particular for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, which also plays formidable role in achieving China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) goals in 2030. On this basis, we conduct a multi-model comparison study to examine the diffusion laws of PV solar technology across countries, and provide feasible deployment forecasting plans for China. The considered models in this work includes classical Bass, Logistic and Gompertz; and 10 countries with top PV cumulative capacity are involved, i.e., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Australia, China, India, Japan and the US. Our results depict that China gains remarkable advantage in PV solar technology innovation; the PV market has a great potential to grow, with the projected annual growth rate to be 30~40% annually in the coming 5 years. Further, several policy recommendations are yielded for China's long-term development of PV solar industry.