Forecasting mergers and acquisitions failure based on partial-sigmoid neural network and feature selection.

Abstract

Traditional forecasting methods in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) data have two limitations that significantly reduce forecasting accuracy: (1) the imbalance of data, that is, the failure cases of M&A are far fewer than the successful cases (82%/18% of our sample), and (2) both the bidder and the target of the merger have numerous descriptive features, making it difficult to choose which ones to forecast. This study proposes a neural network using partial-sigmoid (i.e., partial-sigmoid neural network [PSNN]) as the activation function of the output layer and compares three feature selection methods, namely, chi-square (chi2) test, information gain and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). Experimental results prove that our PSNN (improved up to 0.37 precision, 0.49 recall, 0.41 G-Mean and 0.23 F1-measure) and feature selection (improved 1.83%-13.16% accuracy) method can effectively improve the adverse effects of the defects of the above two merger data on forecasting. Scholars who studied the forecast of merger failure have overlooked three important features: assets of the previous year, market value and capital expenditure. The chi2 test feature selection method is the best among the three feature selection methods.