Prognostic factors in exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Abstract

Background: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has a high prevalence worldwide. It is important to know the mechanisms that have an influence on the high mortality of the exacerbated form of the disease.Objective: to identify the prognostic factors that have a bearing on the mortality at discharge of patients with exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and to assess the usefulness of the implicative statistical analysis in the identification of these factors.Methods: a prospective, analytical, observational, case-control study was carried out, with a cohort of patients with a diagnosis of exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, treated at the intensive care unit of the "Saturnino Lora Torres" Provincial Medico-Chirurgical Teaching Hospital of Santiago de Cuba, from January 2014 to September 2016. Implicative statistical analysis was applied to achieve the stated objective, using binary logistic regression as the gold standard to assess the efficacy of the proposed technique.Results: using both techniques coma at 24 hours after admission was identified as a factor of poor prognosis. Binary logistic regression also detected the presence of pulmonary thromboembolism. The implicative statistical analysis also identified tachycardia at 24 hours as a poor prognostic factor, which was not detected by logistic regression.Conclusions: poor prognostic factors were identified and the usefulness of the implicative statistical analysis methodology was verified, which is proposed as a complement to logistic regression for this type of research.

Keywords

• data interpretation, statistical
• logistic models
• pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive
• prognosis