Spatio-temporal evolution and factor explanatory power analysis of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

Urban resilience assesses a city’s ability to withstand unknown risks. Scholars are not comprehensive in assessing urban resilience, and they lack consideration of population resilience. This study investigated 110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as study areas. We calculated the YREB’s level of urban resilience based on the aspects of “economy-society-population-ecology-infrastructure”, which ensured that the comprehensive evaluation of urban resilience is complete and sufficient. The spatio-temporal evolution of urban resilience was analyzed using exploratory spatial data. Geodectectors were used to investigate the impact of several indicators, focusing on economic, social, population, ecological, and infrastructure factors, on urban resilience. The results showed that the urban resilience of the YREB has maintained a slow upward trend from 2005 to 2018, and the average urban resilience of the YREB has risen from 0.2442 to 0.2560. The resilience gap between cities in the study region increased initially and then decreased. The dominant factor in the spatial differentiation of urban resilience was the economic factors, followed by the population factors. Urban resilience has been clarified and an evaluation index system is constructed, which can provide an effective reference for the evaluation of urban resilience among countries around the world. Based on this, factors that optimize urban resilience are configured, and the regional and national sustainable development can be promoted.

Keywords

• Urban resilience
• Spatial-temporal differentiation
• Geographical detector
• Exploratory spatial data analysis
• The Yangtze River Economic Belt