Predicting Future Incidences of Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Discrete Heartbeats from Normal Sinus Rhythm ECG Signals via Deep Learning Methods

Abstract

This study aims to compare the effectiveness of using discrete heartbeats versus an entire 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) as the input for predicting future occurrences of arrhythmia and atrial fibrillation using deep learning models. Experiments were conducted using two types of inputs: a combination of discrete heartbeats extracted from 12-lead ECG and an entire 12-lead ECG signal of 10 s. This study utilized 326,904 ECG signals from 134,447 patients and categorized them into three groups: true–normal sinus rhythm (T-NSR), atrial fibrillation–normal sinus rhythm (AF-NSR), and clinically important arrhythmia–normal sinus rhythm (CIA-NSR). The T-NSR group comprised patients with at least three normal rhythms in a year and no atrial fibrillation or arrhythmias history. Clinically important arrhythmia included atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, atrial premature contraction, atrial tachycardia, ventricular premature contraction, ventricular tachycardia, right and left bundle branch block, and atrioventricular block over the second degree. The AF-NSR group included normal sinus rhythm paired with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter within 14 days, and the CIA-NSR group comprised normal sinus rhythm paired with CIA occurring within 14 days. Three deep learning models, ResNet-18, LSTM, and Transformer-based models, were utilized to distinguish T-NSR from AF-NSR and T-NSR from CIA-NSR. The experiments demonstrated the potential of using discrete heartbeats in predicting future arrhythmia and atrial fibrillation incidences extracted from 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) signals alone, without any additional patient information. The analysis reveals that these discrete heartbeats contain subtle patterns that deep learning models can identify. Focusing on discrete heartbeats may lead to more timely and accurate diagnoses of these conditions, improving patient outcomes and enabling automated diagnosis using ECG signals as a biomarker.

Keywords

• arrhythmia risk prediction
• atrial fibrillation risk prediction
• artificial intelligence