Habitat Loss and Biotic Velocity Response to Climate Change for Alpine Plant Species in Atlantic Oceanic Islands

Abstract

Climate change may shift species outside of their current climatic tolerances, which can be problematic for oceanic islands with limited options for species migration. Their alpine habitats, which represent islands within islands, are a special concern due to high endemism rates. The Canary Islands have two examples for such fragile ecosystems above 2000 m, on La Palma and Tenerife. This study contributes an assessment of the Canary Islands’ climatic habitat for 47 alpine plant species under observed climate change (1959–1989 versus 1990–2019 periods) as well as for future projections (2041–2060 and 2061–2080 periods). We analyzed the contraction of climatic habitats and migration requirements (biotic velocity) for each species to compensate for observed and predicted climate change. Our results suggest that temporary climate refugia exist on Tenerife but are insufficient on La Palma, where habitat loss due to historical climate change has already created an area of significant concern: the Cumbre Vieja Natural Park. On Tenerife, current alpine species can find suitable climate habitats in the caldera area and on the Teide-Pico Viejo volcano. That said, migration paths toward these refugia are long and complex, and human-assisted migration may be required. Species-specific statistics to support such management interventions are provided in this study.

Keywords

• Canary Islands
• biodiversity refugia
• island endemics
• species distribution modeling
• threatened species