Spatial variability and uncertainty of soil nitrogen across the conterminous United States at different depths

Abstract

Abstract Soil nitrogen (N) is an important driver of plant productivity and ecosystem functioning; consequently, it is critical to understand its spatial variability from local‐to‐global scales. Here, we provide a quantitative assessment of the three‐dimensional spatial distribution of soil N across the United States (CONUS) using a digital soil mapping approach. We used a random forest‐regression kriging algorithm to predict soil N concentrations and associated uncertainty across six soil depths (0–5, 5–15, 15–30, 30–60, 60–100, and 100–200 cm) at 5‐km spatial grids. Across CONUS, there is a strong spatial dependence of soil N, where soil N concentrations decrease but uncertainty increases with soil depth. Soil N was higher in Pacific Northwest, Northeast, and Great Lakes National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) ecoclimatic domains. Model uncertainty was higher in Atlantic Neotropical, Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau, and Southeast NEON domains. We also compared our soil N predictions with satellite‐derived gross primary production and forest biomass from the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset. Finally, we used uncertainty information to propose optimized locations for designing future soil surveys and found that the Atlantic Neotropical, Pacific Northwest, Pacific Southwest, and Appalachian/Cumberland Plateau NEON domains may require larger survey efforts. We highlight the need to increase knowledge of biophysical factors regulating soil processes at deeper depths to better characterize the three‐dimensional space of soils. Our results provide a national benchmark regarding the spatial variability and uncertainty of soil N and reveal areas in need of a better representation.

Keywords

• machine learning
• MODIS
• nutrients
• representativeness
• soil modeling