Ziyuan Kexue (Feb 2024)
Dynamic characteristics and differentiation of construction land supply in shrinking small and medium-sized cities
Abstract
[Objective] The contradiction between population shrinkage and construction land expansion is common in shrinking small and medium-sized cities. Analyzing the dynamic characteristics of construction land supply is an important basis for understanding the mechanism of change. [Methods] Using data from www.landchina.com, this study employed the propensity score matching model to choose control cities, and analyzed the dynamic characteristics of construction land supply in 71 shrinking small and medium-sized cities (that is, inter-group differences). Then, based on panel clustering analysis, this study explored the differential characteristics of construction land supply within these shrinking small and medium-sized cities (that is, intra-group differences). Finally, this study used Logistic regression to analyze the potential factors contributing to inter-group and intra-group differences. [Results] (1) The construction land supply of shrinking small and medium-sized cities has the following outstanding characteristics compared with the control cities: a decreasing trend in the supply of construction land, a significant slowdown in price growth, an increasing trend of non-market-oriented supply, and a faster expansion of non-business and non-industrial land supply. Among them, the shrinking cities in Northeast China showed both the general land supply trends of shrinking cities, and regional characteristics of larger land supply scale generally at lower prices. (2) This study categorized the 71 shrinking small and medium-sized cities into three types: low-level supply cities, declining supply cities, and weak growth supply cities. Cities of the first type are mostly traditional agricultural cities, which had a lower level of construction land market development. Cities of the second type are mostly resource-based industrial decline cities, which had a declining construction land market. Cities of the third type mostly experience population outflow within a growing region, which had a stable construction land market but a risk of decline. (3) Demand factors such as population and industrial development are the main factors contributing to inter-group differences, while intra-group differences are mainly associated with government supply factors and the level of industrial development. [Conclusion] Shrinking small and medium-sized cities exhibit both common features and internal diversity and differences in construction land supply. While the construction land supply can be temporarily changed by local governments, it tends to return to the actual level determined by the development conditions over a longer period. Therefore, the population-land use growth paradox in these cities will be corrected to some extent. Based on the conclusion, this article also proposed some policy recommendations for the spatial planning and urban renewal of shrinking small and medium-sized cities.
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