A Novel Method of Forecasting Chaotic and Random Wind Speed Regimes Based on Machine Learning with the Evolution and Prediction of Volterra Kernels

Abstract

This study aims to focus on using the Volterra series and machine learning for forecasting random and chaotic wind speed regimes, since calm weather is mostly noticed at the local site, making dataset selection difficult. A novel method is proposed to predict Volterra kernels up to the third order, using a forward–back propagation neural network with 12-month measurements at Fujairah site (United Arab Emirates). Both daily and monthly wind speed datasets are investigated for forecasting. The three dominant hourly and daily kernels are extracted for each day and each month. Predicted future Volterra kernels are estimated from past values using both statistical analysis and individual neuro networks for each of the Volterra kernel coefficients. Using the evolved Volterra kernels, the hourly and daily wind speeds are forecasted with similar patterns of the measured values. Due to the random nature of wind speed at the local site, a two-layer with four neurons per layer neuro network is used to locate the most variable and intense speed during 8 h in the day. Forecasted wind speed is determined with errors arising from different sources, such as the utilization of only third-order Volterra kernels and the difficulty of machine training of the employed shallow network. Nevertheless, this work depicts a useful algorithm to forecast chaotic and random wind speed regimes. Computational time is a trade of the complexity of Volterra mathematical analysis.

Keywords

• error estimation
• Korhonen network
• machine learning
• extraction algorithm
• Volterra kernels
• wind speed prediction