Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of <i>Amblyomma americanum</i> (Acari: Ixodidae) under Near Current and Future Climatic Conditions, Using the Maximum Entropy Model
Delong Ma,
Xinchang Lun,
Chao Li,
Ruobing Zhou,
Zhe Zhao,
Jun Wang,
Qinfeng Zhang,
Qiyong Liu
Affiliations
Delong Ma
School of Public Health and Health Management, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan 250117, China
Xinchang Lun
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Chao Li
School of Public Health and Health Management, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan 250117, China
Ruobing Zhou
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Zhe Zhao
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Jun Wang
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Qinfeng Zhang
School of Public Health and Health Management, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan 250117, China
Qiyong Liu
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Amblyomma americanum (the lone star tick) is a pathogen vector, mainly from eastern North America, that bites humans. With global integration and climate change, some ticks that are currently confined to a certain place may begin to spread out; some reports have shown that they are undergoing rapid range expansion. The difference in the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum under current and future climatic conditions is dependent on environment variables such as temperature and precipitation, which can affect their survival. In this study, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum. The MaxEnt model was calibrated at the native range of A. americanum using occurrence data and the current climatic conditions. Seven WorldClim climatic variables were selected by the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The best model was chosen based on the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The resulting model was then projected onto the global scale using the current and future climate conditions modeled under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
