Trends in Head and Neck Cancer Mortality from 1999 to 2019 in Japan: An Observational Analysis

Abstract

Globally, the numbers of head and neck cancer (HNC) cases and related deaths have recently increased. In Japan, few studies have examined crude or age-adjusted HNC mortality rates. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the trends in crude and age-adjusted mortality rates for HNC per million individuals in Japan from 1999 to 2019. Data on HNC-associated deaths were extracted from the national death certificate database using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (n = 156,742). HNC mortality trends were analysed using joinpoint regression models to estimate annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC). Among men, no significant change was observed in the age-adjusted death rate trend from 1999 to 2014; however, a marked decrease was observed from 2014 to 2019. No changing point was observed in women. Age-adjusted mortality rates continuously decreased over the 21-year period, with an AAPC of −0.7% in men and −0.6% in women. In conclusion, the overall trend in age-adjusted rates of HNC-associated deaths decreased, particularly among men, in the past 5 years. These results will contribute to the formulation of medical policies to develop targeted screening and prevention programmes for HNC in Japan and determine the direction of treatment strategies.

Keywords

• head and neck cancer
• mortality
• joinpoint regression
• trend analysis