A Typology of Transition Patterns Involving Long-Term NEET Episodes: Accumulation of Risk and Adversity

Abstract

This paper uses Danish population-based administrative registers to study contemporary school-to-work transitions among young adults who experience long-term NEET episodes between age 16 and 20. By applying sequence analysis and clustering, this paper identifies five distinct transition patterns. Using this typology as the outcome variable in multinomial regression the paper offers insight into how experiences and circumstances, developing until age 16, can affect the subsequently unfolding transition process. Finally, the paper looks ahead and describes whether transitional difficulty accumulates into early adulthood. While one transition pattern stands out as more stable and less worrying, three of the remaining four demonstrate how transitional difficulty between age 16 and 20 develops as precarious patterns of attachment to well-established systems within the Danish welfare state. It is further established that various childhood risk factors significantly increase the odds of experiencing precarious transition patterns. Finally, the analyses demonstrate how instability and risk during childhood and school-to-work transition extend into early adulthood for a large part of the study population.

Keywords

• long-term NEET episodes
• transition patterns
• educational difficulty
• risk accumulation
• sequence analysis
• longitudinal framework