Climate of the Past (Oct 2020)
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 <i>midHolocene</i> simulations
- C. M. Brierley,
- A. Zhao,
- S. P. Harrison,
- P. Braconnot,
- C. J. R. Williams,
- C. J. R. Williams,
- D. J. R. Thornalley,
- X. Shi,
- J.-Y. Peterschmitt,
- R. Ohgaito,
- D. S. Kaufman,
- M. Kageyama,
- J. C. Hargreaves,
- M. P. Erb,
- J. Emile-Geay,
- R. D'Agostino,
- D. Chandan,
- M. Carré,
- M. Carré,
- P. J. Bartlein,
- W. Zheng,
- Z. Zhang,
- Q. Zhang,
- H. Yang,
- E. M. Volodin,
- R. A. Tomas,
- C. Routson,
- W. R. Peltier,
- B. Otto-Bliesner,
- P. A. Morozova,
- N. P. McKay,
- G. Lohmann,
- A. N. Legrande,
- C. Guo,
- J. Cao,
- E. Brady,
- J. D. Annan,
- A. Abe-Ouchi,
- A. Abe-Ouchi
Affiliations
- C. M. Brierley
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
- A. Zhao
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
- S. P. Harrison
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, UK
- P. Braconnot
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement‐IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ, Université Paris‐Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Gif‐sur‐Yvette, France
- C. J. R. Williams
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
- C. J. R. Williams
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
- D. J. R. Thornalley
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
- X. Shi
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
- J.-Y. Peterschmitt
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement‐IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ, Université Paris‐Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Gif‐sur‐Yvette, France
- R. Ohgaito
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
- D. S. Kaufman
- School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
- M. Kageyama
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement‐IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ, Université Paris‐Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Gif‐sur‐Yvette, France
- J. C. Hargreaves
- Blue Skies Research Ltd, Settle, BD24 9HE, UK
- M. P. Erb
- School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
- J. Emile-Geay
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
- R. D'Agostino
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- D. Chandan
- Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Ontario, M5S1A7, Canada
- M. Carré
- LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
- M. Carré
- CIDIS, LID, Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
- P. J. Bartlein
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA
- W. Zheng
- LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
- Z. Zhang
- NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
- Q. Zhang
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- H. Yang
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
- E. M. Volodin
- Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119333, Russia
- R. A. Tomas
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
- C. Routson
- School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
- W. R. Peltier
- Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Ontario, M5S1A7, Canada
- B. Otto-Bliesner
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
- P. A. Morozova
- Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny L. 29, Moscow, 119017, Russia
- N. P. McKay
- School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
- G. Lohmann
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
- A. N. Legrande
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
- C. Guo
- NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
- J. Cao
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
- E. Brady
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
- J. D. Annan
- Blue Skies Research Ltd, Settle, BD24 9HE, UK
- A. Abe-Ouchi
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
- A. Abe-Ouchi
- Atmospheric and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 16
pp. 1847 – 1872
Abstract
The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.
