Prevalence and associated factors of teenage childbearing among Ethiopian women using semi-parametric and parametric proportional hazard and accelerated failure time models

Abstract

Abstract Background Teenage childbearing is a common issue for young people’s sexual and reproductive health in the world, particularly in low-income countries, and affects teenagers between the ages of 13 and 19. According to several academics, adolescent pregnancy accounts for the majority of Ethiopia’s population increase, and there has been little effort to address this threat. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and associated factors of the time to teenage childbearing in Ethiopia. Method This paper compares the results of the semi-parametric proportional hazard (PH), parametric PH, and accelerated failure time (AFT) models to find the model that best fits the data. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to evaluate the performance of models examined in this investigation. Time to teenage childbearing was the study’s outcome variable, while the analysis considered various independent variables. We analyze data from the 2016 National Demographic Health Survey to assess the influence of different risk factors on teenage pregnancy among Ethiopian women. Results Out of the 10,274 teenagers (aged between 13 and 19) who participated in the 2016 survey, 6,430 (62.59%) were parents. The study findings revealed that these teenage parents were influenced by various time-related factors before becoming parents. The log-normal AFT model has the lowest AIC value and hence it is the best fit for this data. Results from this model indicated that significant factors influencing the time to teenage childbearing include the age of the household head, current age of the respondents, region, religion, educational attainment, wealth status, intention to use contraception, and recent sexual activity. Conclusion This study reveals that 62.59% of surveyed teenagers aged 13 to 19 were parents. Various factors at both the individual and community levels: including the age of the household head, regional differences, religious affiliation, educational level, economic status, contraceptive intentions, and recent sexual activity, determine the time to teenage childbearing. Targeted interventions addressing these factors are essential for reducing teenage pregnancies and supporting adolescent parents effectively.

Keywords

• AFT model
• Cox PH model
• Parametric PH model
• Teenage childbearing