Widespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents

Abstract

Abstract The mid-depth ocean circulation is critically linked to actual changes in the long-term global climate system. However, in the past few decades, predictions based on ocean circulation models highlight the lack of data, knowledge, and long-term implications in climate change assessment. Here, using 842,421 observations produced by Argo floats from 2001-2020, and Lagrangian simulations, we show that only 3.8% of the mid-depth oceans, including part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, can be regarded as accurately modelled, while other regions exhibit significant underestimations in mean current velocity. Knowledge of ocean circulation is generally more complete in the low-latitude oceans but is especially poor in high latitude regions. Accordingly, we propose improvements in forecasting, model representation of stochasticity, and enhancement of observations of ocean currents. The study demonstrates that knowledge and model representations of global circulation are substantially compromised by inaccuracies of significant magnitude and direction, with important implications for modelled predictions of currents, temperature, carbon dioxide sequestration, and sea-level rise trends.