Land Suitability for Cocoa Cultivation in Peru: AHP and MaxEnt Modeling in a GIS Environment

Abstract

Peru is one of the world’s leading exporters of cocoa beans, which directly impacts the household economy of millions of small farmers. Currently, the expansion and modernization of the cocoa-growing area require the zoning of the territory with suitable biophysical and infrastructural conditions to facilitate optimizing productivity factors. Therefore, we analyzed land suitability for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) production on the Peruvian mainland as a support measure for sustainable agriculture. To this end, the climatological, edaphological, orographic, and socioeconomic criteria determining sustainable cocoa cultivation were identified and mapped. Three modeling approaches (Analytic Hierarchy Process—AHP, Maximum Entropy—MaxEnt, and AHP—MaxEnt combined) were further used to hierarchize the importance of the criteria and to model the potential territory for sustainable cocoa cultivation. In all three modeling approaches, climatological criteria stood out among the five most important criteria. Elevation (orographic criteria) is also featured in this group. On the other hand, San Martin and Amazonas emerged as the five regions with the largest area ‘Highly suitable’ for cocoa cultivation in all three modeling approaches, followed by Loreto, Ucayali, Madre de Dios, Cusco, Junín, and Puno, which alternated according to modeling approach. From most to least restrictive, the AHP, MaxEnt, and AHP–MaxEnt modeling approaches indicate that 1.5%, 5.3%, and 23.0% of the Peruvian territory is ‘Highly suitable’ for cocoa cultivation, respectively.

Keywords

• agricultural zoning
• agroecological zoning
• analytical hierarchy process
• crop suitability
• maximum entropy
• multi-criteria evaluation