Incidence forecasting of new invasive pest of coconut rugose spiraling whitefly (Aleurodicus rugioperculatus) in India using ARIMAX analysis

Abstract

The rugose spiraling whitefly (RSW), Aleurodicus rugioperculatus Martin is a new invasive pest occurring in several crops including coconut since 2016 in India from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. The population dynamics of new invasive whitefly species, A. rugioperculatus study indicated that RSW was found throughout the year on coconut and the observation recorded on weekly interval basis shows that A. rugioperculatus population escalated from the first week of July 2018 (130.8 nymph/ leaf/ frond) reaching the maximum during the first week of October (161.0 nymph/ leaf/ frond) which subsequently dwindled to a minimum during April. Due to variation in the agro-climatic conditions of different regions, arthropods show varying trends in their incidence also in nature and extent of damage to the crop. Influence of weather parameters on rugose spiralling whitefly incidence is lacking, which is essential for developing management strategies. The forecasting model to predict rugose spiralling whitefly incidence in coconut was developed by ARIMAX model of weekly cases and weather factors. In exploring different prediction models by fitting covariates to the time series data, ARIMA (0,2,1) with Maximum temperature was found best model for predicting the rugose spiralling whitefly incidence and all covariates were found non-significant predictors except maximum temperature.

Keywords

• Aleurodicus rugioperculatus
• ARIMAX,
• coconut
• incidence forecasting