Prediction and analysis of energy demand of high energy density AC/DC park based on spatial static load forecasting method

Abstract

The fast economic development of China in recent years is raising demand for construction of AC/DC power supply park with high power consumption density. This correspondingly requires grid to forecast the load of these AC/DC power supply park to be built. Here, based on the comprehensive comparison of multiple load forecasting methods, according to the actual situation of AC/DC power supply park, such mission belongs to long-term forecasting type have been chosen, in which three typical methods, electricity consumption per capita method, load intensity method, and load type estimation method, were selected. The forecasting methods were used for a selected demonstration AC/DC power supply park in Guangdong for analysing its power consumption trend of 2017–2030 and long-term future. Through the comprehensive analysis of the impact of AC/DC power supply park load forecasting, the main factors of load forecasting have been revealed. The calculation results obtained by the three methods exhibited good consistency. The main factors that influence the load forecast of this kind are load density, load growth rate, and proportion of refrigeration requirements.

Keywords

• AC-DC power convertors
• power consumption
• load forecasting
• spatial static load forecasting method
• high power consumption density
• multiple load forecasting methods
• load intensity method
• load type estimation method
• power consumption trend
• load density
• China
• energy demand prediction
• energy demand analysis
• fast economic development
• electricity consumption-per-capita method
• load growth rate
• refrigeration requirements
• AC-DC power supply park load forecasting
• high energy density AC-DC park