Petroleum Bottling Model in the Arctic Zone of Krasnoyarsk Region by Neural Network Forecasting

Abstract

Industrial development and active development of resources in the territory of the fragile Arctic ecosystem requires proper control of technological processes at enterprises located in these areas. Analysis and subsequent modelling of oil and oil products spills are performed in order to elaborate preventive measures concerning emergencies, means and methods of their liquidation being constantly ready to ensure safety of people and territories, as well as to reduce damage and losses as much as possible in case of their occurrence. The methods of oil product spill area assessment used at present, especially in the Arctic zone, have a number of limitations. This article presents modelling of the process of oil products spill to calculate pollutants concentration distribution and prediction of pollution area up to the moment of its localization with the application of neural network methods. The empirical results were got with NeuroPro neural network simulator and the PHOENICS software product were chosen. The simulation results were correlated with the data obtained in the analysis of an accident caused by depressurization of an aircraft fuel transfer pipeline from on an oil-loading pier on a river in the Arctic zone of Krasnoyarsk Krai.