Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030

Abstract

Territorial spatial resource changes play an irreplaceable role in the human development process, providing the necessary dependency conditions and ecosystem services for human production and life. This article takes Jilin Province, China, as the study area, analyzes the characteristics of the dynamic evolution of territorial spatial in Jilin Province from 1985 to 2020, and simulates the spatial and temporal changes of land space in Jilin Province under three different scenarios in 2030. The results show that: (1) From 1985 to 2020, the productive space (PS) and living space (LS) show a gradual increase trend; the ecological space (ES) shows a decrease trend. The LS is scattered except in the Changbai Mountain area; the PS is mainly concentrated in the west and expands year by year; the ES is mainly in the east, and its scope shrinks year by year. (2) From 1985 to 2020, the center of gravity of PS changes more slowly and moves northward as a whole. The change of the center of gravity of LS is mainly concentrated in Changchun, and its center of gravity is shifting southward. The center of gravity of ES moves more sharply, first to the northwest and then gradually to the southeast. (3) Under the natural development scenario in 2030, the territorial spatial area fluctuation is mainly in the north of Songyuan City, central Jilin City, and the north of Changchun City. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area dynamics of Changchun City, Songyuan City, and the northwestern part of Baicheng City change significantly. Under the economic development scenario, the hotspot areas of spatial area change are mainly in the western part of Jilin Province.

Keywords

• territorial spatial
• multi-scenario forecasting
• future land - use simulation (flus) model
• hotspot analysis
• jilin province