Export of agricultural products as a determinant of currency security of Ukrainian economy

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of this study is the development of the methodological approach for estimation the impact of agri-food exports on the monetary sphere of Ukraine in order to substantiate the prospective directions of the export potential of agricultural products as the factor in ensuring the currency security of Ukraine. Methodology / approach. The following methods were used: literature review in determining the main trends in the export of agricultural products based on the analysis of publications; economic and statistical analysis to assess the impact of key factors on the formation of the export potential of agricultural products and its impact on exchange rate formation; ARDL modelling, Dickey-Fuller, and Engle-Granger tests to estimate the impact of different factors on exchange rate changes. Results. The paper highlights the immediate and delayed influence of selected factors on the dynamics of the exchange rate in Ukraine, showing that the export of food products and raw materials for their production can significantly strengthen the national currency in the long-run. The continuous growth in food exports contributes to a slower appreciation of the exchange rate, which ultimately leads to a stronger national currency. Therefore, the strategy of focusing on increasing food exports can play a vital role in bolstering the Ukrainian currency in the long-run by exerting a positive influence on the exchange rate dynamics and contributing to the overall economic stability. Originality / scientific novelty. The study contributes to the understanding of the complex interplay between war, food security, and economic stability. The novelty implies the ARDL model of the influence of agricultural exports on the currency and exchange rate sphere of the Ukrainian economy. Additionally, the analysis adds new dimension to the discussion on the strategic importance of the agricultural sector for foreign exchange reserves and currency accumulation. Practical value / implications. The practical value is that understanding the relationship between export volumes, global prices, and exchange rate movements can help in predicting and managing currency fluctuations more effectively. By identifying the time frames for the return of exchange rate shocks to their long-term equilibrium and the impact of various factors on currency valuation, the study aims policy-making processes at ensuring currency security for the state.

Keywords

• agricultural exports
• currency security
• exchange rate
• export potential
• global food security
• export restrictions.