Modeling alternative future scenarios for direct application in land use and conservation planning

Abstract

Abstract Land use is one of the largest threats to biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services. These losses can be mitigated through strategic land use planning efforts that balance the social, economic, and environmental needs of society and the ecosystems that support it. A crucial component in the development of strategic plans is a concrete understanding of land use change and the impacts and influence of it on the landscape. Land change models are one method for quantifying the effect of these relationships and projecting the resulting changes on landscapes of the future. However, in order for the resulting model products to be useful to planners, policy makers, and conservationists, they must be focused on addressing questions of relevance to the community they intend to serve. Scenario planning offers a framework for integrating community‐developed visions of the future with land change models in order to increase relevancy and uptake of products. We developed a land change model for five future scenarios of land use change in northwestern Virginia, integrating regional stakeholder knowledge throughout the process. Across scenarios, we found consistent increases in development across our study area, but the form and configuration of land use types varied sub‐regionally. This manuscript describes not only our results, but the process of integrating stakeholder input throughout. We describe our model outputs in the context of usefulness for planners, policy makers, and conservation decision makers, often through the lens of the importance of geographic scale. This work serves as an additional example of land use modeling across scenarios. We conclude with guidance for scientists interested in integrating similar approaches in their work.

Keywords

• actionable science
• co‐production of knowledge
• land use modeling
• scenario planning