Transition Pathways to Carbon Neutrality in China's Power System under Multi-Technology Development Scenarios

Abstract

This study uses the MESEIC model to design three scenarios of low, middle, and high electricity demand, and three development scenarios of electricity technologies to discuss the development paths of China's future power system to achieve carbon neutrality under different scenarios of electricity demand and electricity development. In the future, China's power system will shift to a new power system mainly based on renewable energy sources, but it is difficult to realize the complete phase-out of coal power under all development scenarios. Under the three scenarios, coal-fired power generation will decline to 0.72-4.11 trillion kWh in 2050, and its share will fall to 4.9%-30.3%. Coal power generation will peak in the 2025-2030 period, except for the high electricity demand, and negative emission scenario (NE-F) for fossil power generation.