The influence of atmospheric circulation on the water budget of Lake Balaton

Abstract

Monthly water budget elements (inflow, precipitation, evaporation and controlled release) of a lake are related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CP). The Hess-Brezowsky (1969) daily CP types are combined to obtain some typical monthly histories (monthly classes) of daily CP types. It is shown that each water budget element is strongly related - in a conditional probability framework - to the monthly CP classes. A simulation procedure is developed to generate CP classes and then the corresponding conditional water budget elements. The frequency distribution of simulated water budget elements reproduces the historical frequency distributions. A possible climate change may alter the monthly classes and frequencies of daily CP types and so General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs can be used to estimate the climate change effect on lake water budget.

Keywords

• inflow
• evaporation
• lake
• water budget
• climate change
• zufluß
• verdunstung
• see
• wasserhaushalt
• klimaveränderung