Urban Heat Island Intensity Prediction in the Context of Heat Waves: An Evaluation of Model Performance

Abstract

Urban heat islands, characterized by higher temperatures in cities compared to surrounding areas, have been studied using various techniques. However, during heat waves, existing models often underestimate the intensity of these heat islands compared to empirical measurements. To address this, an hourly time-series-based model for predicting heat island intensity during heat wave conditions is proposed. The model was developed and validated using empirical data from the National Monitoring Network in Temuco, Chile. Results indicate a strong correlation (r > 0.98) between the model’s predictions and actual monitoring data. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of considering the unique microclimatic characteristics and built environment of each city when modelling urban heat islands. Factors such as urban morphology, land cover, and anthropogenic heat emissions interact in complex ways, necessitating tailored modelling approaches for the accurate representation of heat island phenomena.

Keywords

• urban heat islands
• heat waves
• prediction model