Journal of Water and Climate Change (Sep 2023)
Comparative analysis of the influence of temperature and precipitation on drought assessment in the Marmara region of Turkey: an examination of SPI and SPEI indices
Abstract
Drought is one of the most serious problems for human societies and ecosystems. Climate change has begun to affect the whole world, but regional climate change can have different effects. Precipitation is frequently used to determine drought; besides, temperature has started to be used in recent years. The effect of temperature on the occurrence of drought was investigated for the Marmara region, located in the northeast of Turkey. The spatiotemporal variability of drought in the Marmara region was analyzed by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for 3-, 6-, and 12-month series. Results show that SPEI droughts occur with longer duration and increased magnitude, which can be attributed to the rise in potential evapotranspiration rates with an increase in temperature. The correlation between SPI and SPEI is strong for the same time series, and the number of extreme drought values for SPI is higher than SPEI, while the number of severe and moderate drought values is lower compared to SPEI. The years 1989, 1990, 2001, 2007, and 2014 were characterized as the highest drought years throughout the region. The study concludes that temperature should be considered in future studies. HIGHLIGHTS This study evaluates drought in terms of short- and long-time periods in the Marmara region.; The drought has been analyzed temporally and spatially.; The study gives an idea about the importance of considering the temperature in the determination of drought.; The drought duration and intensity were analyzed according to the short- and long-time periods.; Standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index droughts were found to last longer and be more severe than standardized precipitation index.;
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