A novel downstream Flood Hazard Grade Index incorporating upstream Hydrograph Characteristics to predict Debris Flow Runoff

Abstract

The July 2020 debris flow in Japan caused enormous damage, and briefing sessions on disaster prevention have prompted demands for detailed explanations and predictions of such phenomena in high-risk areas. It is necessary to obtain four-dimensional risk information, which considers temporal changes in disaster risk, rather than limiting the analysis to conventionally static information. In this study, we developed a method for setting the boundary conditions necessary for debris flow prediction via a four-dimensional hazard map using various types of digital information. To understand the effects of hydrograph characteristics from the upstream, flow discharge was analysed under different flow conditions, such as topography-driven riverbed shear stress, using a one-dimensional numerical model that considers water and sediment flow. Our results suggested that characteristics of the upstream inflow hydrograph affect flood runoff processes downstream; therefore, we developed a separate downstream flood hazard grade index that uses characteristics of the upstream inflow hydrograph as input.