Disasters and economic performance: evaluation of the impact of the breaking of the Mariana dam

Abstract

In 2015, a major technological disaster occurred in Brazil: The breakdown of a dam in the city of Mariana. When discharged along the Rio Doce basin, the ore debris have generated negative externalities that affected two states: Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of the disaster on the economic performance of these States. To this end, synthetic controls were constructed to identify the behavior of the States in the absence of the disaster. In terms of the general manufacturing production, Espírito Santo State had a reduction in 18.22% in comparison with the situation before the disaster, whereas there was no significant impact in Minas Gerais. As for the extractive mineral manufacturing production, both states showed significant decrease of this index as a result of the disaster: Espírito Santo state had a reduction in 25,01%, whereas Minas Gerais exhibited a decrease in 15,58%.

Keywords

• Desastre tecnológico
• Mariana, Controle sintético
• Desempenho econômico