Sensitivity of Glaciers in the European Alps to Anthropogenic Atmospheric Forcings: Case Study of the Argentière Glacier

Abstract

Abstract This study aims to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic forcings on the retreat of the Argentière Glacier (European Alps). The glacier evolution is simulated over 1850–2014 following retrospective scenarios produced with the IPSL‐CM6‐LR climate model, with and without natural and anthropogenic forcings. The scenarios used to force an ice flow model are statistically downscaled, preserving the long‐term trends and the physical consistency between precipitation and temperature. Since the late 19th century, the regional aerosol cooling has partially counteracted the greenhouse gas‐induced warming, delaying the time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal. The anthropogenic signal emerged from natural variability in 1979 for temperature and surface melting, and in 2008 for the glacier mass, whereas its snout position in 2014 remains compatible with natural variability. From the total mass loss between 1850 and 2014, 66% [21%–111%] is attributed to anthropogenic activities.

Keywords

• glacier modeling
• climate forcings
• detection‐attribution
• time of emergence
• statistical adjustment