A Contextual Reinforcement Learning Approach for Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Buildings

Abstract

The energy management of buildings plays a vital role in the energy sector. With that in mind, and targeting an accurate forecast of electricity consumption, in the present paper is aimed to provide decision on the best prediction algorithm for each context. It may also increase energy usage related with renewables. In this way, the identification of different contexts is an advantage that may improve prediction accuracy. This paper proposes an innovative approach where a decision tree is used to identify different contexts in energy patterns. One week of five-minutes data sampling is used to test the proposed methodology. Each context is evaluated with a decision criterion based on reinforcement learning to find the best suitable forecasting algorithm. Two forecasting models are approached in this paper, based on K-Nearest Neighbor and Artificial Neural Networks, to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology. The reinforcement learning criterion consists of using the Multiarmed Bandit algorithm. The obtained results validate the adequacy of the proposed methodology in two case-studies: building; and industry.

Keywords

• Consumption forecast
• contextual operation
• decision tree
• reinforcement learning