An Advanced Decision Making Framework via Joint Utilization of Context-Dependent Data Envelopment Analysis and Sentimental Messages

Abstract

Compared to widely examined topics in the related literature, such as financial crises/difficulties in accurate prediction, studies on corporate performance forecasting are quite scarce. To fill the research gap, this study introduces an advanced decision making framework that incorporates context-dependent data envelopment analysis (CD-DEA), fuzzy robust principal component analysis (FRPCA), latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), and stochastic gradient twin support vector machine (SGTSVM) for corporate performance forecasting. Ratio analysis with the merits of easy-to-use and intuitiveness plays an essential role in performance analysis, but it typically has one input variable and one output variable, which is unable to appropriately depict the inherent status of a corporate’s operations. To combat this, we consider CD-DEA as it can handle multiple input and multiple output variables simultaneously and yields an attainable target to analyze decision making units (DMUs) when the data present great variations. To strengthen the discriminant ability of CD-DEA, we also conduct FRPCA, and because numerical messages based on historical principles normally cannot transmit future corporate messages, we execute LDA to decompose the accounting narratives into many topics and preserve those topics that are relevant to corporate operations. Sequentially, the process matches the preserved topics with a sentimental dictionary to exploit the hidden sentiments in each topic. The analyzed data are then fed into SGTSVM to construct the forecasting model. The result herein reveals that the introduced decision making framework is a promising alternative for performance forecasting.

Keywords

• decision making
• sentiment
• performance measure
• context-dependent data envelopment analysis
• topic modelling