Population aging from a demographic perspective in the next 13 years. Province of Cienfuegos

Abstract

Foundation: the phenomenon of population aging occurs gradually; it involves fertility, mortality and migration, which in combination over time determine the growth and age structure of the population.Objective: to characterize the trend towards demographic aging in Cienfuegos in the next 18 years. Method: qualitative descriptive study on the behavior of the population aging over 60 years in Cienfuegos until 2032. A projection was carried out according to the component method, following each cohort of people of the same age and sex during their lives and taking into consideration that it will be exposed to equal levels of fertility, mortality and migration. Results: fertility will have a constant trend of 1.65 daughters per woman based on the observed behavior. The 15-49 year old female population, responsible for fertility, will decrease from 52% of all women, to 42% or less by 2032. Infant mortality will show a decrease to three deaths per 1,000 live births. Gross mortality will show a tendency to increase to 10 deaths per 1000 inhabitants. Migration according to the trend since 2012 would be maintained with a negative balance and an increase its feminization. Conclusions: the decrease in fertility and mortality in Cienfuegos will contribute to a slow and scanty population growth in the next 13 years. The segment of the population over 60 years old will increase with respect to the age group under 15 years

Keywords

• demografía
• envejecimiento
• dinámica poblacional