The approach of futures studies based on scenario planning: A case study of health services in Sanandaj City, Iran

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Futures studies is a managerial tool which is also regarded as a soft knowledge to gather the information on what may happen in the future or what is more likely to happen mainly to reduce risk factors. This study aims to identify the favorable future and the most probable occurring scenarios concerning the demands in the healthcare services and medical treatments in Sanandaj City, Iran. METHODS: In this study, environmental monitoring, Delphi method, and scenario planning were utilized. To determine the drivers of content and the periphery, we used a non-structured questionnaire. A total of 12 experts in the field of medicine, management, sociology, psychology, and economics as well as health care management participated in the study. RESULTS: In the present study, in order to calculate the scenario planning and relative data analysis, we reflected on the morphology between the key factors that influenced the health care. Two important uncertainties were identified: the quality of service by suppliers and the level of attitudinal knowledge of the clients. In addition, using a cross (matrix) method, we were able to identify four passable future scenarios. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings and results of this study, Apple Health Scenario, where two uncertainties of suppliers' services of a qualitative increase status, and the increasing level of knowledge and attitude of health applicants, have the best conditions. Consequently, a favorable future will be required for health services, health and medical treatment and other future prospects will not be desirable for this matter.

Keywords

• future
• planning techniques
• health services