New Rule Base Business Success Prediction Model for Iranian IT Start-Ups

Abstract

Hundreds of thousands of new businesses are created every year around the world, and it is estimated that about half a billion people worldwide are actively trying to start new businesses. Therefore, creating a new business is very important; because it creates new job opportunities, produces new technology and creates wealth and value in society. However, a large percentage of small businesses fail in the early years of their existence. Meanwhile, in the field of superior technologies, due to the high dependence on changing technology and also the need for high initial capital, firms are facing a more difficult situation. The purpose of this study is to provide a rule based database to determine the success and failure of IT startups in Iran. For this purpose, using research conducted in this field and also receiving the opinions of experts through a semi-open questionnaire, we identified 36 factors affecting the success and failure of startups and classified them into 5 categories. In this research, the method of fuzzy inference system by Mamdani method has been used to analyze the factors. The statistical community is the founders of Iranian startups as well as professors and business professionals;30 founders of successful Iranian startups have been randomly selected as a sample. The results show that team-related factors and team characteristics have the greatest impact on the success and failure of startups.

Keywords

• success failure model
• it startups
• maturity levels
• rule-based
• fuzzy inference system